International Relations

Scenario-building exercises

Navigate the future with a sense of direction

For groups of up to 20 participants, our scenario-building exercises enable decision-makers to develop their foresight abilities. In an ever-more complex and fast-paced world, continuous change poses serious challenges for organisations. In order to stay ahead of the curve, it is paramount for policy- and decision-makers to prepare for uncertain future developments and to develop robust, yet adaptable strategies. But how do you determine the right strategy? How do you decide on key planning factors? How do you ensure that you make the right decisions?

Although, no one can predict the future, with the right tools you can prepare your organisation for potential change. For many years, in the private and public sector, the use of scenarios has been a valuable tool to think of and plan for an uncertain future. Scenarios build on today's assumptions and highlight future possible developments. Drawing upon intuition, analyses and pre-determined elements, a scenario details significant trends, driving forces, main actors and critical uncertainties.

Learning objectives:

  • Learn and apply the scenario-building methodology
  • Improve your foresight capabilities
  • Learn to embrace uncertainty
  • Enhance your planning and strategy capabilities
  • Improve your decision-making abilities
  • Build upon collective knowledge

Benefits of using scenario-building for organisations and educational programmes

Our scenario-building exercises enable you to bring focus to your organisation or your standing training courses. It allows you to provide participants with a memorable experience in which they deal with the critical uncertainties that determine their shared future.

Past experiences:

  • Afghanistan 2020 scenarios: for a group of 14 decision-makers from the public and private sector Pax Ludens explored the future of Afghanistan. The scenarios explored the role of NATO in the coming years and its impact on political and economic stability.
  • The Netherlands in the World: developed in collaboration with the Netherlands Institute for International Relations Clingendael this standing programme addresses the issues facing Dutch policy-makers in their daily work environments. More information about this programme can be found here.
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